50 Facts About FiveThirtyEight

The Origins and Evolution of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight has become a cornerstone in the world of data-driven journalism. Let's dive into its fascinating journey and key milestones.

1. Founding and Name Origin: FiveThirtyEight was founded on March 7, 2008, and takes its name from the number of electors in the United States Electoral College.

2. Founder Nate Silver: Nate Silver, a renowned statistician, left FiveThirtyEight in 2023 to start his own website, The Silver Bulletin, taking his forecasting model with him.

3. Disney Acquisition: After Nate Silver's departure, Disney acquired FiveThirtyEight and hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new forecasting model. The original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed on September 18, 2023, and web traffic was redirected to ABC News pages.

Polling and Forecasting Excellence

FiveThirtyEight's reputation is built on its innovative approach to polling and forecasting. Here are some key aspects of their methodology and achievements.

4. Polling Aggregation: Initially, FiveThirtyEight focused on compiling and analyzing polling data for the 2008 presidential election. The site used a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to balance out the polls with comparative demographic data.

5. Pollster Ratings: FiveThirtyEight assigns letter grades to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. These ratings help users understand the reliability of different polling firms.

6. Polling Accuracy: Despite some inaccuracies, polling has historically been quite accurate. In the 2022 election cycle, for instance, polls were closer than in any other cycle since at least 1998, with 55% of polls analyzed being closer than 6 points.

7. Historical Accuracy: The accuracy of polls can be measured by their margin of error. Historically, candidates leading polls by at least 20 points have won 99% of the time, while those leading by less than 3 points have won just 55% of the time.

8. Statistical Bias: Statistical bias refers to the direction in which polls miss their mark. Academic and media-affiliated pollsters tend to be more accurate, with Suffolk University and The New York Times/Siena College being among the most accurate in recent cycles.

Nate Silver's Insights and Contributions

Nate Silver's work at FiveThirtyEight has been groundbreaking. His insights have shaped the way we understand polling and forecasting.

9. Nate Silver's Insights: Nate Silver has been a prominent voice in election forecasting. He emphasized that the 2016 election was not a failure of data analytics but rather a failure of major media outlets to understand probability and conventional wisdom.

10. Trump's Chances: In the 2016 election, FiveThirtyEight assigned Trump a 29% chance of winning, which was a more accurate prediction than many other outlets. Nate Silver's model highlighted the possibility of Trump's victory, despite conventional wisdom suggesting otherwise.

11. Polling Methodologies: Nate Silver has pointed out that polling methodologies might undervalue certain candidates' support due to nonresponse bias. This occurs when pollsters fail to reach individuals with lower civic engagement and social trust, such as Trump supporters.

12. Undecided Voters: The 2016 election saw a high number of undecided voters, which contributed to the unpredictability of the outcome. Nate Silver noted that undecided voters can swing significantly, especially in elections with more third-party candidates.

Election Forecasts and Models

FiveThirtyEight's election forecasts have been remarkably accurate, thanks to their sophisticated models and methodologies.

13. Competitive Elections: In competitive elections, polls are often closer than expected. For instance, in the 2020 presidential election, the final FiveThirtyEight polling averages underestimated Trump by around 3.7 percentage points on average in competitive states.

14. Polling Errors: Despite their accuracy, polls can still make significant errors. The 2020 election saw some notable polling misses, including a 4-point error in national polls and larger errors in noncompetitive states.

15. Historical Polling Errors: Polling errors have been a part of electoral history. In the 1980 presidential election, for example, polls missed Ronald Reagan's landslide victory by a whopping 8 points.

16. Gallup Polls: Gallup's final polls dating back to 1936 have often been inaccurate. The low response rates and numerous potential errors in polling make it astonishing that polls are as accurate as they are.

17. FiveThirtyEight's Mission: FiveThirtyEight's mission is to take polls as they are, for better or worse, and understand the sources of error and uncertainty behind them. This includes building probabilistic forecasts and reporting on polling perceptions by the media and public.

Awards and Recognition

FiveThirtyEight's excellence has not gone unnoticed. The site has received numerous accolades for its work.

18. Awards and Recognition: FiveThirtyEight has won numerous awards, including Bloggie Awards for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics.

19. Election Forecasts: The site is best known for its election forecasts. In the 2012 presidential election, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

20. Nate Silver's Legacy: Nate Silver's work at FiveThirtyEight has been instrumental in popularizing the application of statistical analysis in politics. His models have been widely recognized for their accuracy and have influenced the way people think about election outcomes.

21. The Silver Bulletin: After leaving FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver started The Silver Bulletin, which serves as a direct successor to FiveThirtyEight's election forecast. The Silver Bulletin has continued to provide accurate predictions, including correctly forecasting Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election.

Methodologies and Innovations

FiveThirtyEight's methodologies have set new standards in polling and forecasting. Here's a closer look at their innovative approaches.

22. Forecasting Models: FiveThirtyEight's forecasting models are renowned for their accuracy. In the 2008 presidential election, the site correctly predicted the outcome in 49 out of 50 states, and in 2012, it correctly predicted the outcome in all states.

23. Weighting Polls: FiveThirtyEight's methodology involves weighting each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll. This approach helps balance out the polls and provide a more accurate picture of public opinion.

24. Demographic Data: The site uses comparative demographic data to balance out the polls. This involves analyzing data from different polls to identify trends and patterns that might not be immediately apparent from individual polls.

Coverage Beyond Elections

While FiveThirtyEight is best known for its election coverage, the site also delves into various other topics.

25. Public Support: FiveThirtyEight has published articles on a wide variety of topics, including public support for health care reform, global warming legislation, and LGBT rights. These articles provide statistical information and analysis on current political issues.

26. Senate Prospects: The site has also published monthly updates on the prospects for turnover in the Senate. This includes analyzing data on Senate races and predicting the likelihood of changes in the Senate composition.

27. Congressional Support: FiveThirtyEight has reported on Congressional support for legislation, providing insights into how different bills are likely to fare in Congress. This includes analyzing data on public opinion and Congressional voting patterns.

28. Global Elections: The site covers elections around the world, providing analysis and forecasts for international elections. This includes analyzing data from various countries to predict election outcomes.

29. Marijuana Legalization: FiveThirtyEight has also published articles on marijuana legalization, analyzing data on public support for legalization and predicting the likelihood of changes in marijuana laws.

30. Economic Policies: The site has reported on federal economic policies, providing insights into how different economic policies are likely to affect the public. This includes analyzing data on economic indicators and public opinion.

Understanding Polling Perception

FiveThirtyEight aims to educate the public on the complexities of polling and its perception.

31. Polling Perception: FiveThirtyEight is interested in how polls are perceived by the media and the public. The site often reports on conflicts between how polls should be viewed and how they are actually perceived by the public.

32. Error Analysis: The site conducts detailed analyses of polling errors, examining why polls were off and what this means for future polling. This includes looking at specific examples of polling errors in past elections.

33. Competitive States: In competitive states, polling errors can be significant. For instance, in the 2020 election, the final FiveThirtyEight polling averages underestimated Trump by around 3.7 percentage points on average in competitive states.

34. Noncompetitive States: Polling errors can be even larger in noncompetitive states. In the 2020 election, there were significant polling errors in red states, which were not as competitive.

Factors Influencing Polling Accuracy

Several factors can influence the accuracy of polling, and FiveThirtyEight has explored many of them.

35. Undecided Voters Impact: Undecided voters can significantly impact election outcomes. In the 2016 election, a high number of undecided voters contributed to the unpredictability of the outcome.

36. Third-Party Candidates: The presence of third-party candidates can also affect election outcomes. In the 2016 election, candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein drew votes away from major party candidates, potentially swinging the outcome.

37. Polling Methodologies Critique: Nate Silver has criticized traditional polling methodologies for failing to capture certain segments of the population, such as Trump supporters who exhibit lower civic engagement and social trust.

38. Female Opponent Theory: Nate Silver has suggested that having a female opponent could potentially benefit Trump. He pointed out that undecided voters leaned significantly against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, which might not be the case with other female candidates.

39. Nonresponse Bias: Nonresponse bias refers to the phenomenon where certain segments of the population are less likely to respond to surveys. This can lead to inaccurate polling results, particularly for candidates like Trump who have lower civic engagement and social trust.

Polling Accuracy in Key States

Polling accuracy in key states can make or break election forecasts. FiveThirtyEight has closely monitored this aspect.

40. Polling Accuracy in Swing States: In swing states, polling accuracy is crucial. The 2020 election saw a close competition in several key battleground states, with FiveThirtyEight's final polling averages showing Trump leading in five of the seven key battleground states.

41. Competitive Races: Competitive races often see closer polling margins. In the 2020 election, races within 3 points in the polls were essentially toss-ups, with candidates winning only 55% of the time when leading by less than 3 points.

42. Historical Context: Polling accuracy has varied over the years. The 2004 and 2008 presidential elections saw relatively accurate polling, while the 2012 election also identified the winner correctly in almost every state, albeit with some margin of victory underestimation.

43. Polling Errors in Noncompetitive States: Noncompetitive states often see larger polling errors. In the 2020 election, there were significant polling errors in red states, which were not as competitive.

44. Gallup's Historical Polls: Gallup's historical polls dating back to 1936 have often been inaccurate. The low response rates and numerous potential errors in polling make it astonishing that polls are as accurate as they are.

FiveThirtyEight's Impact on Media and Public Perception

FiveThirtyEight has significantly influenced how media and the public perceive polling data.

45. FiveThirtyEight's Impact on Media: FiveThirtyEight has influenced how media outlets report on polling data. The site's emphasis on understanding the sources of error and uncertainty behind polls has changed the way media approaches polling coverage.

46. Public Perception of Polls: The public's perception of polls often conflicts with how polls should be viewed. FiveThirtyEight aims to educate the public on the limitations and potential biases of polling data.

47. Nate Silver's Reactions to Criticism: Nate Silver has been critical of media outlets that failed to understand probability and conventional wisdom. He believes that people want information that confirms their prior beliefs and that FiveThirtyEight's coverage should not be blamed for the unpredictability of elections.

FiveThirtyEight's Legacy and Continued Influence

Despite changes in leadership, FiveThirtyEight continues to be a leading source for polling and data analysis.

48. FiveThirtyEight's Awards and Recognition: The site has received numerous awards for its coverage, including Bloggie Awards for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics.

49. Nate Silver's Legacy in Sports: Before his work in politics, Nate Silver was known for his application of statistical analysis in baseball. His work in sabermetrics helped revolutionize the way baseball teams evaluate player performance.

50. Continued Influence: Despite Nate Silver's departure, FiveThirtyEight continues to influence the field of polling and data analysis. The site's new owner, Disney, has maintained its commitment to providing accurate and insightful polling data, ensuring that FiveThirtyEight remains a leading source for opinion poll analysis and political insights.

FiveThirtyEight's Lasting Impact

FiveThirtyEight has changed how we look at data in politics, sports, and beyond. Founded by Nate Silver in 2008, the site quickly became a go-to for polling analysis and election forecasts. Even after Silver left in 2023 to start The Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight kept its reputation for accuracy and insightful analysis. Now under Disney's wing, the site continues to influence how media and the public perceive polling data. From pollster ratings to demographic data analysis, FiveThirtyEight has set a high bar for data journalism. Its legacy lives on, shaping the way we understand elections and public opinion. Whether you're a political junkie or just curious about the numbers behind the news, FiveThirtyEight remains a vital resource.