40 Facts About Allan Lichtman

Early Life and Education

Allan Lichtman, a name synonymous with presidential election predictions, has a fascinating background. Let's explore his early years and academic journey.

1. Allan Lichtman was born on April 4, 1947, in Brooklyn, New York City, specifically in the Brownsville neighborhood.
2. Growing up in a politically active family, he developed a keen interest in politics from a young age.
3. Lichtman attended Stuyvesant High School, where he excelled both academically and athletically.
4. He graduated from Brandeis University in 1967 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in history, earning Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude honors.
5. During his time at Brandeis, he was also an accomplished athlete, participating in track and wrestling.
6. In 1973, Lichtman received his Ph.D. in history from Harvard University, where he was a Graduate Prize Fellow.

Teaching Career

Lichtman's teaching career has been as impressive as his academic achievements. He has made significant contributions to American University and beyond.

7. He began teaching at American University in 1973 and quickly rose through the ranks.
8. By 1980, he had become a Full Professor, and in 2011, he was named Distinguished Professor.
9. Lichtman has served as the chair of the History department at various points in his career.
10. In 1992-93, he was awarded the Scholar/Teacher of the Year award for his exceptional contributions to both teaching and scholarship.

Author and Commentator

Lichtman is not just a professor; he is also a prolific author and commentator. His works have garnered significant attention and acclaim.

11. He has authored 11 books and numerous scholarly and popular articles.
12. His book White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in nonfiction.
13. Co-authored with Richard Breitman, FDR and the Jews won the National Jewish Book Award Prize in American Jewish History and was a finalist for the Los Angeles Times book prize in history.
14. His book The Case for Impeachment was a national independent bookstore bestseller.

Expert Witness and Consultant

Lichtman's expertise extends beyond academia into the realm of civil rights and political consulting.

15. He has testified as an expert witness in over 100 civil and voting rights cases.
16. Prominent figures such as Vice President Al Gore and Senator Ted Kennedy have sought his consultation.
17. His statistical analysis of voting irregularities during the 2000 election was instrumental in understanding racial disparities in ballot rejection rates.
18. He assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in investigating voting problems during the 2000 election, concluding there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates.

Game Show Appearance

Lichtman has shown his versatility by stepping outside academia and into the world of game shows.

19. In the early 1980s, he appeared on the game show Tic Tac Dough while serving as a visiting professor at the California Institute of Technology.
20. He won $100,000 during his stint on the show, showcasing his versatility beyond academia.

Development of the 13 Keys

One of Lichtman's most significant contributions is the development of the "Keys to the White House" model, a groundbreaking method for predicting presidential elections.

21. In 1981, Lichtman collaborated with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Soviet seismologist, to develop the "Keys to the White House" model.
22. This method uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.
23. The keys include factors such as the party mandate after midterm elections, the sitting president's re-election status, and the presence of a third-party challenger.

Accuracy in Predictions

Lichtman's model has proven to be remarkably accurate, earning him the title "Prophet of Presidential Elections."

24. His model has accurately predicted the outcome of nine out of the past ten presidential elections.
25. The exceptions were the 2000 election, where he predicted an Al Gore victory (though he noted his model only pertained to the popular vote), and the 2016 election, where he predicted Donald Trump's popular vote victory and later revised his model to note it picked the Electoral College winner.
26. Despite skepticism from the punditry establishment, Lichtman's keys gained popularity as the professional forecasting community began to recognize the limitations of their mathematical models.
27. His predictions have been praised by candidates, including Donald Trump, who sent him a note saying "GOOD CALL!" after Lichtman predicted his 2016 victory.

Role in Key Elections

Lichtman's predictions have played a significant role in several key elections, often stirring controversy and debate.

28. In the 2000 presidential election, Lichtman predicted a victory for Al Gore. However, Gore ultimately lost the electoral college to George W. Bush by a thin margin. Lichtman believes the election was stolen and has provided evidence to support his claim.
29. In the 2016 election, Lichtman predicted Donald Trump's victory in the Electoral College, despite Trump losing the popular vote. This prediction was initially met with skepticism but later vindicated by the electoral outcome.
30. In the 2020 election, Lichtman correctly predicted that Joe Biden would win, attributing Trump's loss to his handling of the pandemic. Trump's failure to deal substantively with the pandemic led to economic downturns, which lost him two additional keys: The short- and long-term economy. This put him down six keys, enough to predict his defeat.

Current Predictions

Lichtman continues to make predictions, looking ahead to future elections with his tried-and-true model.

31. For the 2024 election, Lichtman has predicted that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.
32. His prediction is based on eight true keys favoring Harris and three false keys favoring Trump.
33. However, he notes that two keys related to foreign policy could still flip before the election, affecting the outcome.

Methodology of the 13 Keys

The 13 keys are designed to evaluate the strength and performance of the incumbent party. Here's a closer look at these criteria.

34. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats than the opposition.
35. Sitting President Running for Re-election: The sitting president is running for re-election.
36. White House Party Avoiding a Primary Contest: The incumbent party is avoiding a primary contest.
37. Third-Party Challenger: There is a third-party challenger.
38. Short-Term Economy: The short-term economy is strong.
39. Long-Term Economy Growth: Long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms.
40. Major Changes to National Policy: The White House party has made major changes to national policy.

The Legacy of Allan Lichtman

Allan Lichtman has carved out a unique niche in the world of political predictions. His "13 Keys to the White House" model has proven to be a reliable tool for forecasting presidential elections, earning him the nickname "Prophet of Presidential Elections." Beyond his predictions, Lichtman's contributions as a historian, author, and expert witness have left a lasting impact on both academia and public discourse. His ability to blend historical analysis with contemporary political insights makes him a standout figure. As we look ahead to future elections, Lichtman's work will undoubtedly continue to be a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of American politics. His dedication to accuracy and his fearless approach to controversial topics ensure that his legacy will endure. Allan Lichtman isn't just a predictor; he's a vital voice in the ongoing conversation about democracy and governance.